INFORM Vulnerability in North America
Published 2026-10-03 · 24Peaks Research
INFORM Vulnerability in North America
INFORM Vulnerability in North America refers to the INFORM Risk Index scores for the region’s countries, where Canada and the United States consistently rank among the lowest-vulnerability countries in the world, while Mexico and parts of Central America and the Caribbean record noticeably higher hazard, exposure, and socio-economic vulnerability scores. As of the latest available year, the index shows a clear north-south gradient, with natural hazards dominating the risk profile of the United States and Canada, and a mix of natural hazards, inequality, and governance constraints shaping outcomes further south. The full historical series for every country is available on the 24Peaks workbench.
What the INFORM Risk Index Measures
The INFORM Risk Index is a composite indicator developed by the INFORM initiative, a collaboration that grew out of work supported by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. It is designed to measure the risk of a humanitarian crisis or disaster at the country level, on a scale from 0 to 10, where higher values indicate greater risk.
The index is built from three dimensions, each with its own sub-components:
- Hazards and exposure: the likelihood and intensity of physical events such as floods, earthquakes, cyclones, droughts, and epidemics, combined with how many people and assets sit in harm’s way.
- Vulnerability: the characteristics of a population that make it more likely to suffer harm, split into socio-economic vulnerability (poverty, inequality, dependency ratios) and vulnerable groups (people displaced, people with disabilities, and similar categories).
- Coping capacity: the institutional, infrastructural, and financial resources a country can mobilise to respond to and recover from shocks, covering disaster risk reduction, governance, and communication.
The hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity dimensions are aggregated into a single score, and countries are also grouped into risk classes ranging from Very Low to Very High. Because the methodology is transparent and updated annually, it is widely used by governments, humanitarian agencies, and analysts — including investors who want a quick read on country-level fragility.
Why INFORM Vulnerability Matters for Investors
For investors, the INFORM index is a practical shorthand for country risk that sits alongside sovereign credit ratings, governance indicators, and World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. It matters for several reasons:
- Supply chain exposure. A high INFORM score signals that a country’s infrastructure, ports, or power networks may be disrupted by floods, storms, or civil unrest, which can interrupt production and logistics.
- Sovereign and corporate credit. High hazard exposure combined with low coping capacity tends to correlate with weaker fiscal buffers, higher insurance costs, and more volatile GDP growth.
- Operational cost. Firms with facilities in high-risk regions face higher insurance premiums, security costs, and contingency planning expenses.
- Humanitarian and ESG screens. Asset managers applying environmental, social, and governance filters often use INFORM to flag countries where social and institutional resilience is weak.
In North America, the index is useful not because any large economy is in crisis, but because it highlights intra-regional differences. Canada and the United States score in the Very Low range, while Mexico and several Caribbean states sit in the Low to Medium range, and Haiti — geographically part of the wider North American neighbourhood — records among the highest vulnerability scores in the world.
Recent Trends Across North America
As of the latest available year, the INFORM Risk Index shows a stable pattern at the top of the region. Canada and the United States remain in the Very Low risk class, with the United States scoring lower than Canada on average, largely because of its very high coping capacity. Both countries score relatively higher on hazard exposure than on vulnerability, reflecting exposure to hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, and — increasingly in both countries — climate-related events such as heatwaves and flooding.
Mexico sits in the Low to Medium range. Its hazard exposure is substantial, particularly for earthquakes, hurricanes on both coasts, and drought in the north. Its vulnerability score is driven more by socio-economic factors, including informal employment, regional inequality, and pockets of weak local governance, rather than by coping capacity alone, which remains moderate by regional standards.
The Caribbean sub-region shows the widest dispersion. Countries such as Barbados, The Bahamas, and Trinidad and Tobago have relatively strong coping capacity but very high hazard exposure, particularly to hurricanes. Haiti, by contrast, records very high vulnerability and very low coping capacity, a combination that consistently places it among the highest-risk countries globally.
Across the region, the trend in recent years has been broadly stable, with two exceptions. First, the United States has seen its hazard and exposure component edge upward in some years, reflecting the rising frequency of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. Second, several Caribbean states have seen slow improvements in coping capacity, though these gains remain fragile and can be reversed by a single major storm.
Country Comparison Examples
The table below compares four countries in the North American region using the INFORM Risk Index. Values are on the 0–10 scale, where higher values indicate greater risk. Figures are approximate and refer to the latest available year; exact values for each year are hosted on the 24Peaks workbench.
| Country | Recent value | Year | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Very Low | As of latest available year | High hazard exposure, very high coping capacity |
| Canada | Very Low | As of latest available year | Low vulnerability, strong institutions |
| Mexico | Low to Medium | As of latest available year | High earthquake and hurricane exposure, moderate coping capacity |
| Haiti | Very High | As of latest available year | Very high vulnerability, very low coping capacity |
The table illustrates the key regional insight: hazard exposure alone does not determine risk. The United States and Canada both face significant natural hazards, but their high coping capacity keeps their overall risk scores in the Very Low band. Mexico’s moderate coping capacity means its hazards translate into higher risk. Haiti’s combination of high vulnerability and low coping capacity produces the highest risk score in the region by a wide margin.
Limitations of the INFORM Risk Index
The INFORM index is a useful tool, but investors should be aware of its limitations:
- It is a country-level measure. It cannot capture differences between regions within a country, such as the contrast between northern and southern Mexico or between coastal and inland provinces in Canada.
- It relies on data that varies in quality. Some sub-components are based on survey data that may be several years old, and the index acknowledges that data gaps exist for some countries.
- It is not a forecast. INFORM measures structural risk, not the probability that a crisis will occur in a given year. A low score does not mean a country is immune to shocks.
- It is not a financial risk model. The index does not incorporate market pricing, currency risk, or sovereign debt metrics, so it should be used alongside — not instead of — conventional investment analysis.
- Methodology changes over time. The index has been revised across editions, so year-to-year comparisons should be made with care and with reference to the methodology notes for each release.
For these reasons, INFORM is best used as one input in a broader country-risk assessment, particularly for portfolio managers with exposure to infrastructure, energy, agriculture, or supply chains in the region.
FAQ
What is the INFORM Risk Index?
The INFORM Risk Index is a composite indicator that measures the risk of a humanitarian crisis or disaster at the country level, on a scale from 0 to 10. It combines hazards and exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity into a single score. It is updated annually and is widely used by humanitarian agencies, governments, and analysts.
How do Canada and the United States score on INFORM?
As of the latest available year, both Canada and the United States score in the Very Low risk class, typically below 2 on the 0–10 scale. Their high coping capacity and strong institutions offset significant natural hazard exposure. Exact annual values are available on the 24Peaks workbench.
Why does Mexico score higher than Canada or the United States?
Mexico scores higher because its vulnerability and coping capacity components are weaker, even though its hazard exposure is comparable in some respects. Factors include informal employment, regional inequality, and moderate institutional capacity. As a result, its overall risk class is Low to Medium rather than Very Low.
Which country in North America has the highest INFORM vulnerability?
Haiti has the highest INFORM vulnerability in the North American neighbourhood, with a Very High risk class driven by very high vulnerability and very low coping capacity. Its exposure to hurricanes and earthquakes compounds these structural weaknesses. Its score is among the highest in the world.
Can the INFORM index predict a crisis or market shock?
No. INFORM measures structural risk, not the probability of a specific event in a given year. A low score does not guarantee stability, and a high score does not mean a crisis is imminent. It should be used as one input alongside market, credit, and governance analysis.
Compare INFORM Vulnerability scores for every country in North America, year by year, on the 24Peaks workbench.