Political Stability Index and Conflict Vul... in Central African Republic
Published 2026-10-08 · 24Peaks Research
Political Stability Index and Conflict Vulnerability in Central African Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) consistently records one of the lowest Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism scores in the world. As of the latest available year, the country sits in the bottom percentile of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), reflecting persistent armed conflict, weak state authority, and fragmented control over territory. Investors tracking frontier and conflict-exposed markets should treat this indicator as a core risk input, not a footnote.
What the Political Stability Index Measures
The Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism indicator is one of six Worldwide Governance Indicators published by the World Bank. It captures perceptions of the likelihood that a government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including politically motivated violence and terrorism.
Key methodological points:
- It is a perception-based composite, aggregating dozens of sources from think tanks, survey institutes, NGOs, and multilateral bodies.
- Scores are expressed in two ways: an approximate percentile rank (0–100) and a governance score roughly between -2.5 and +2.5.
- A higher percentile rank means better perceived stability; a low rank means higher conflict vulnerability.
- It is distinct from the Conflict Vulnerability Index and similar conflict-risk frameworks, which often blend structural, socioeconomic, and event-based data rather than perceptions alone.
For CAR, the score is not a measure of current violence levels on a given day. It is a comparative signal of how fragile and conflict-prone the state is perceived to be relative to all other countries.
Why It Matters for Investors and Analysts
Political stability is a foundational variable for country risk. It influences:
- Sovereign risk and debt pricing: unstable states face higher borrowing costs and limited access to capital markets.
- Currency and capital controls: conflict risk often correlates with exchange-rate volatility and restrictions on repatriation.
- Operational risk: supply chains, staffing, insurance, and security costs rise sharply in fragile settings.
- Aid and concessional finance: donors and development banks condition flows on governance and stability metrics.
- Commodity exposure: CAR is rich in gold, diamonds, and timber, but instability suppresses formal extraction and exports.
For portfolio managers with exposure to frontier Africa, the Political Stability Index functions as a screening filter. A very low percentile rank signals that other indicators, such as GDP growth or resource output, must be discounted for elevated political and security risk.
Recent Trends and Regional Context
CAR has ranked near the bottom globally for most of the past two decades. The country experienced repeated coups, rebellions, and sectarian conflict, particularly around 2013–2014, and has since remained highly fragmented. As of the latest available year, its percentile rank remains in the lowest tier worldwide, alongside a small group of similarly fragile states.
Regional patterns matter:
- Sub-Saharan Africa shows wide dispersion. Some countries score in the middle global range, while a cluster of fragile states, including CAR, score in the bottom decile.
- The Sahel and parts of Central Africa have seen deterioration tied to insurgency, military coups, and territorial contestation.
- Global averages are dragged down by conflict-affected states, meaning CAR's low rank is not merely a regional artifact but a global outlier.
The implication for data users is that CAR's stability score should be read as structural, not cyclical. Year-to-year changes are typically small in absolute terms, but even minor improvements or deteriorations can matter for aid negotiations and security assessments.
Comparison Examples
To contextualize CAR, compare it with a few other countries using the same indicator and methodology.
| Country | Recent value | Year | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central African Republic | Bottom percentile tier (approx. single digits to low teens) | Latest available year | Persistent conflict, weak territorial control |
| Somalia | Bottom percentile tier | Latest available year | Long-running insurgency and state fragility |
| South Sudan | Bottom percentile tier | Latest available year | Civil conflict and political instability |
| Rwanda | Mid-to-upper percentile for the region | Latest available year | Relatively stronger stability perceptions |
Values are approximate percentile ranks from the Worldwide Governance Indicators and should be verified against the latest release. 24Peaks hosts the latest series for direct comparison.
These comparisons show that CAR is not isolated. It belongs to a small group of states where conflict vulnerability is a defining feature of the investment environment, not a temporary condition.
Limitations of the Indicator
No single index fully captures conflict risk. Limitations include:
- Perception bias: expert and survey assessments can lag real events or reflect donor narratives.
- Aggregation opacity: composite scores blend sources with different weights and coverage.
- Slow-moving: annual updates may not capture rapid escalations or peace deals.
- National averages: conditions can vary sharply by region within CAR, hiding local differences.
- Correlation, not causation: low stability does not automatically mean imminent collapse, nor does a higher score guarantee safety.
Analysts should pair the Political Stability Index with event-based conflict data, IMF Article IV assessments, UN peacekeeping reports, and World Bank fragility assessments.
FAQ
What is the Political Stability Index for the Central African Republic?
It is the World Bank's Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism indicator, expressed as a percentile rank and governance score. As of the latest available year, CAR ranks in the bottom global tier. This reflects prolonged conflict and weak state authority.
How often is the data updated?
The Worldwide Governance Indicators are typically updated annually. Each release covers the most recent completed year and revises prior years. For the current series, check the 24Peaks database.
Why does CAR score so low?
CAR has experienced repeated coups, armed rebellions, and sectarian violence, with limited government control over much of its territory. These conditions lower perceptions of stability and raise conflict vulnerability. The score is structural, not a one-year anomaly.
Which countries have similar scores?
Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen often appear in the same bottom tier in the latest available data. Comparisons should use the same indicator and year to remain valid. 24Peaks allows side-by-side comparison of these series.
How should investors use this indicator?
Use it as a high-level risk filter, then dig into security, legal, and currency conditions. A very low stability score suggests discounting cash flows and stress-testing for disruption. It is one input among many, not a standalone signal.
Compare the Indicator on 24Peaks
Use the 24Peaks workbench to compare the Political Stability Index and conflict vulnerability metrics for the Central African Republic against peers and track the latest available data in one place.