Central African Republic Government Total Liabilities (% of GDP)

Published 2026-10-16 · 24Peaks Research

Central African Republic Government Total Liabilities (% of GDP)

As of the latest available data, the Central African Republic's government total liabilities remain elevated relative to the size of its economy, a common trait among low-income, fragile states. The ratio expresses total gross government debt—domestic plus external—as a percentage of nominal GDP, giving investors a quick read on debt sustainability and repayment capacity. Because the CAR's economy is small and its statistical base is thin, the ratio can swing sharply year to year, so it should be read alongside IMF and World Bank debt-sustainability analyses rather than in isolation. 24Peaks hosts the latest series for this indicator.

What the Indicator Measures

Government total liabilities (% of GDP) captures the gross stock of a government's debt obligations at a point in time, divided by the country's nominal GDP for the same period. It is a stock-to-flow ratio: the numerator is what the government owes, the denominator is the annual output of the economy that must ultimately service it. Total liabilities typically include:

• External debt: loans from multilateral institutions (IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank), bilateral creditors, and commercial lenders.
• Domestic debt: Treasury bills and bonds, central bank advances, and arrears to domestic suppliers and pension funds.
• Guaranteed debt: obligations of state-owned enterprises that the government has explicitly backstopped.

The standard methodology follows the IMF's Government Finance Statistics (GFS) framework and the World Bank's public debt reporting standards. Gross debt is used rather than net debt, meaning government financial assets are not subtracted. For the CAR, a heavily concessional creditor base—dominated by multilateral and bilateral official lenders—means the composition of debt matters as much as the headline ratio. Interest costs on concessional loans are far lower than on market debt, so a high ratio does not automatically imply distress.

Why It Matters for Investors

Debt-to-GDP is one of the most-watched sovereign metrics because it signals repayment capacity, default risk, and the fiscal space available for public investment. For the Central African Republic, several transmission channels matter:

• Sovereign risk premium. A rising ratio can widen spreads on any tradable sovereign instruments and raise the cost of future borrowing, though the CAR has limited market access and relies mainly on official creditors.
• Currency and exchange-rate exposure. Much of the CAR's external debt is denominated in foreign currency. A depreciation of the regional CFA franc peg—or a shift in the peg arrangement—would mechanically inflate the local-currency value of external liabilities.
• Fiscal crowding out. High debt service consumes revenue that could otherwise fund health, education, or infrastructure, weakening long-run growth prospects.
• IMF program conditionality. Debt thresholds feed directly into IMF program design and debt-sustainability ratings, which in turn affect eligibility for concessional financing and debt relief under frameworks like the HIPC Initiative and the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust.

For portfolio investors, the CAR is not a typical fixed-income market. Its relevance is more indirect: as a commodity exporter (timber, gold, diamonds) and a fragile state, its debt trajectory affects regional stability, donor appetite, and the risk profile of neighboring economies in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC).

Recent Trends and Regional Context

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, government debt ratios have risen over the past decade, driven by commodity price shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and global interest-rate tightening. The IMF has repeatedly flagged that roughly half of low-income countries in the region are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress. The Central African Republic sits within that high-risk cohort, reflecting its narrow export base, weak revenue mobilization, and history of conflict-related economic disruption.

Within CEMAC, peers such as Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, and the Republic of the Congo have generally carried higher headline debt ratios than the CAR in absolute terms, but several benefit from oil revenue that supports servicing capacity. The CAR's distinguishing feature is not necessarily the level of the ratio but the fragility of the denominator: GDP is small, volatile, and heavily informal, so even modest nominal debt increases can move the ratio significantly. Regional monetary policy through the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) and reserve pooling arrangements also shape external financing conditions. As of the latest available year, the CAR's ratio remains a focal point in IMF Article IV consultations and World Bank debt reports.

Comparison Examples

The table below places the Central African Republic alongside a few regional and low-income peers. Values are approximate and refer to the latest available year for each country; exact figures should be verified on 24Peaks, which hosts the most current series.

These comparisons illustrate a key point: a similar headline ratio can imply very different risk depending on creditor composition, currency denomination, and revenue base. Ghana's much higher ratio reflects significant domestic and Eurobond debt with market pricing, whereas the CAR's liabilities are largely owed to official creditors on concessional terms. Investors should therefore pair the ratio with debt-service-to-revenue and interest-to-revenue metrics for a fuller picture.

Limitations and Interpretation Caveats

Debt-to-GDP is informative but imperfect, especially for fragile states like the Central African Republic:

• GDP data quality. National accounts in conflict-affected states are often incomplete, revised frequently, or based on surveys with long lags. The denominator itself carries uncertainty.
• Coverage gaps. Some liabilities—notably arrears, contingent guarantees, and central bank overdrafts—may be underreported or recorded inconsistently.
• Currency conversion. External debt is converted to local currency at a specific exchange rate, and the choice of rate affects the ratio.
• Stock vs. flow. The ratio says nothing about maturity structure. A country can have a moderate ratio but face a near-term refinancing wall.
• Thresholds vary. Debt-sustainability thresholds differ by country income level and institutional quality, so there is no universal "safe" number.

For these reasons, analysts treat the indicator as a starting point, not a verdict. Complementary metrics include debt service as a share of exports and revenue, the present value of debt, and the grant element of new borrowing.

FAQ

What does government total liabilities (% of GDP) measure?

It measures the gross stock of a government's debt—domestic, external, and guaranteed—as a percentage of annual economic output. A higher ratio generally indicates greater reliance on borrowing relative to the size of the economy. It is a standard sovereign risk metric used by the IMF and World Bank.

What is the Central African Republic's current debt-to-GDP ratio?

The latest available data places the CAR's ratio in the range typical of low-income, fragile states, though exact figures are revised periodically. 24Peaks hosts the most current series so investors can track updates. Always confirm the reference year when citing the number.

Why is the CAR's ratio considered high-risk despite being moderate?

Risk depends on more than the headline ratio. The CAR has a narrow revenue base, volatile GDP, and limited market access, so even a moderate ratio can strain servicing capacity. Creditor composition is heavily concessional, which mitigates but does not eliminate risk.

How does the CAR compare with other CEMAC countries?

The CAR's ratio is broadly in line with or slightly above some CEMAC peers, but its economy is smaller and less diversified. Oil exporters like Chad and Gabon benefit from resource revenue that supports debt service. Comparisons should adjust for revenue and export capacity.

What causes the ratio to rise or fall?

The ratio rises when nominal debt grows faster than nominal GDP—through new borrowing, currency depreciation, or recession—and falls when GDP expands faster than debt, through growth, inflation, or debt relief. For the CAR, commodity prices, donor flows, and security conditions are key drivers.

To compare the Central African Republic's government total liabilities against other countries and track the latest series, explore the indicator on the 24Peaks workbench.