Cook Islands INFORM Risk Index Overall

Published 2026-10-18 · 24Peaks Research

Cook Islands INFORM Risk Index Overall

The Cook Islands INFORM Risk Index Overall is a composite score from 0 to 10 that summarises the country's exposure to humanitarian crises and disasters, combining hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. As of the latest available year, the Cook Islands typically records a moderate-to-high overall score driven less by hazard frequency than by its small population, remoteness and thin institutional buffers. The series is published as part of the INFORM Risk framework maintained by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and partners, and 24Peaks hosts the latest available series for cross-country comparison.

What the indicator measures

INFORM Risk is a transparent, composite methodology designed to quantify the risk of a humanitarian crisis. The Overall score aggregates three dimensions, each built from multiple indicators:

• Hazards and exposure: the probability and intensity of natural events (earthquakes, cyclones, floods, drought, epidemics) and the population or assets exposed to them.
• Vulnerability: socioeconomic and demographic conditions that make people more susceptible to harm, such as poverty, inequality, displacement and dependence on vulnerable groups.
• Coping capacity: the strength of institutions, infrastructure, health systems and governance to prepare for and respond to shocks.

Scores are normalised to a 0-10 scale, where higher values indicate greater risk. The Overall score is roughly the average of the hazard-exposure dimension and a combined vulnerability-and-lack-of-coping-capacity dimension. Since INFORM is a relative index, a score reflects where a country sits against the global distribution of territories assessed, not an absolute probability of disaster.

For small island states like the Cook Islands, the structure of the index matters. Cyclone exposure is high, but the hazard-frequency component is only part of the picture. Vulnerability and coping capacity often dominate the final score.

Why it matters for investors and analysts

INFORM Risk serves as a quick screening tool for sovereign, infrastructure and supply-chain risk in markets where conventional data is thin. For the Cook Islands, a small Pacific economy dependent on tourism, fisheries and remittances, the Overall score is a useful proxy for fiscal and operational resilience.

• Disaster exposure implies recurring reconstruction costs and potential shocks to tourism receipts and public finances.
• Coping capacity indicators reflect the fiscal and institutional space available to absorb shocks, relevant for sovereign credit analysis.
• Supply-chain and logistics risk: remote islands face high transport dependency, which amplifies the economic consequences of storms or port closures.
• Insurance and project finance: multilaterals and private insurers use composite risk metrics alongside their own models when pricing hazard exposure.

The index is not a forecast. It is a comparative benchmark that helps contextualise more granular local data held by national statistics offices and regional bodies.

Recent trends by region and structure

Across the Pacific small island developing states, INFORM Overall scores tend to sit in the moderate-to-high range, with similar patterns across the Cook Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, Samoa and Fiji. These economies share structural traits that lift vulnerability and lower coping capacity: narrow export bases, high import dependence, dispersed populations and limited public financial buffers.

Trends in the Pacific over recent years, as of the latest available data, have generally been shaped by:

• Cyclone variability: strong El Nino and La Nina cycles shift hazard exposure year to year.
• Post-pandemic recovery in tourism, which gradually improves economic coping indicators.
• Climate-related adaptation finance, which can modestly strengthen coping capacity over time.

Globally, INFORM scores for high-income large economies cluster at the low-risk end of the scale, while fragile and conflict-affected states sit at the top. Small island states form a middle-to-upper band: rarely the highest-risk in absolute terms, but persistently higher than their income levels alone might suggest because of remoteness and physical exposure. The Cook Islands' Overall score should be read within this structural pattern, not as a one-off result.

Because INFORM is periodically revised, year-on-year changes should be interpreted carefully. Methodology updates, indicator revisions and changes in the normalisation pool can move scores without any change in underlying conditions.

Comparison examples

The table below places the Cook Islands in context against a small number of illustrative comparators. Values are shown as approximate ranges to avoid overstating precision; confirm the latest figures on 24Peaks.

Comparisons of this kind are most useful when read alongside population size, GDP per capita and fiscal reserves. A country with a higher Overall score is not automatically riskier for a given investment; the score summarises humanitarian-crisis risk, which overlaps with but does not equal financial or sovereign risk.

Limitations to keep in mind

INFORM Risk is a screening tool, not a decision rule. Several caveats apply to the Cook Islands Overall score:

• Relative, not absolute: the 0-10 scale is set against the global pool of assessed territories, so a high score does not mean a crisis is likely in any given year.
• Annual revision: methodology and indicator changes can move scores independently of real-world conditions.
• Scale effects: small populations generate volatile per-capita indicators, so single-indicator changes can disproportionately affect the composite.
• Dimension blur: the Overall score can disguise very different compositions. Two territories with the same Overall score may have entirely different hazard, vulnerability and coping profiles.
• Global coverage, local nuance: island-specific risks such as maritime connectivity, outmigration and dependence on a single airport are only partly captured by generic indicators.

Analysts should use the index to frame questions and direct attention to the underlying indicators, combining it with national disaster risk assessments, IMF and World Bank surveillance, and regional data from the Pacific Community.

FAQ

What is the Cook Islands INFORM Risk Index Overall?

It is a composite 0-10 score summarising the Cook Islands' risk of a humanitarian crisis, combining hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. As of the latest available year, it sits in the moderate-to-high range typical of Pacific small island states.

Which year does the latest figure refer to?

The latest available data refers to the most recent annual INFORM Risk release. Because INFORM is revised periodically, always check the year label and methodology notes; 24Peaks hosts the latest available series.

Why is the Cook Islands' score relatively high for its income level?

The Cook Islands faces structural cyclone exposure and high transport dependence, while its small population limits institutional and fiscal buffers. These vulnerability and coping-capacity factors lift the score beyond what income alone would suggest.

How does it compare with other Pacific countries?

It is broadly comparable to other small island states such as Tonga and Samoa, and generally lower than Vanuatu, which faces more intense and frequent cyclone exposure. Larger Pacific economies such as Fiji tend to show somewhat better coping capacity.

Can I use this index to assess investment risk?

Use it as a contextual screening tool alongside sovereign, macroeconomic and sector-specific data. INFORM measures humanitarian-crisis risk, not financial or credit risk, and should not be treated as a standalone indicator.

Compare the Cook Islands INFORM Risk Index Overall against peers and track the latest available data on the 24Peaks workbench.